The Department for Transport (DfT) has referenced research by KPMG in its new Transport Resilience Strategy, highlighting the potential economic consequences of a major cyber incident affecting Britain’s railway.

On page 31 of the strategy, the DfT cites independent research estimating that a hypothetical systemic cyber incident affecting the rail network could cost approximately 1.8 billion GBP over a one-week period of disruption.

The research, titled The Economic Impact of a Systemic Cyber Incident to the Rail Network, was produced by KPMG in 2025. Its findings demonstrate how the consequences of a cyber attack could extend well beyond railway operations, affecting passengers, businesses, supply chains and the wider economy.

ETCS frequency test 71, GTR

© Network Rail

According to the research, the estimated 1.8 billion GBP economic cost comprises approximately 123.5 million GBP in direct financial costs to Network Rail, 281.3 million GBP in additional journey-time costs for passengers and 1.397 billion GBP in wider economic impacts.

The latter includes lost productivity, disruption to freight movements and knock-on effects across supply chains.

The 1.8 billion GBP figure is based on a reasonable worst-case scenario developed by KPMG in consultation with the DfT, Network Rail and the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT). The modelling assumes disruption lasting one week.

The scenario considers a cyber incident affecting Network Rail’s train communications system, resulting in the loss of communications across the national rail network. Services relying on Level 2 European Train Control System (ETCS) would immediately stop operating until the system was restored. Other services would initially be able to operate at speeds of up to 100mph before restrictions reduced this to 60mph.

KPMG assessed the likelihood of a cyber incident causing systemic disruption to Britain’s railway within a two-year period as low. However, it identified the potential for an incident affecting one organisation to spread across the sector, particularly given the interconnected nature of railway systems and supply chains. The report also highlighted differences in cyber security maturity between organisations.

 Cyber Resilience

The DfT’s reference to the research comes as the department sets out its approach to strengthening transport resilience over the next five to ten years.

In the strategy, the DfT stresses that cyber resilience must form an integral part of transport operators’ business continuity planning. This includes identifying vulnerabilities, mapping critical interdependencies within organisations and establishing robust response and recovery arrangements.

The DfT also commits to working with industry to improve cyber security across the transport sector, including its own arm’s-length bodies. This work will sit alongside the Government’s National Cyber Action Plan.

The strategy takes a wider view of transport resilience, recognising that disruption can originate outside the transport sector. Power outages, telecommunications failures, supply chain disruption, extreme weather and geopolitical instability can all affect transport operations.

The DfT identifies the interconnected nature of transport infrastructure as a particular challenge, with disruption affecting one asset or organisation potentially having consequences across other networks and essential services.

Published on 2 November, the Transport Resilience Strategy makes 22 commitments, including developing transport resilience standards, establishing a Transport Resilience Network and launching a Transport Resilience Academy pilot to improve skills and collaboration across the sector.

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